基于季节因素修正的GM(1,1)模型在高速公路车流量预测中的应用
An Application of the GM(1,1) Model Modified with Seasonal Factors to Forecasting the Traffic Flow of an Expressway
  
中文关键词:GM(1,1)模型  车流量预测  季节比率
英文关键词:GM (1,1)  forecasting the traffic flow  seasonal ratio
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作者单位
孙世忠 河北省高速公路衡大管理处河北衡水053000 
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中文摘要:
      高速公路车流量是反映高速公路项目经济效益和社会效益的核心指标,因此探索行之有效的高速公路车流量预测方法十分必要。分别论述了传统GM(1,1)灰色模型和加入季节比率进一步修正的GM(1,1)模型的计算原理、思路,并基于河北省衡大高速公路往年各季度高速公路车流量实际数据,分别采用传统GM(1,1)灰色模型以及基于季节因素修正的GM(1,1)模型进行计算。结果表明,基于季节因素修正的GM(1,1)模型方法得出的预测数据误差较小,效果较好,具有一定的实用意义。
英文摘要:
      As the traffic flow of an expressway is the core index reflecting the economic and social benefits of the expressway project, it is necessary to explore effective methods for forecasting the traffic flow of an expressway. Introduced respectively in the present paper are the traditional GM(1,1) grey model and the GM(1,1) model which is further modified with seasonal ratios. Upon the basis of the data of the actual traffic flow of Hengda Expressway in Hebei Province in the past few years, the traditional GM(1,1) grey model and the modified GM(1,1) model modified with seasonal factors are respectively used for calculations. The results show that the improved GM(1,1) model modified with seasonal factors has less error and better effect, and thus is of valuable importance in practice.
孙世忠.基于季节因素修正的GM(1,1)模型在高速公路车流量预测中的应用[J].国防交通工程与技术,2019,17(5):40~43,16
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